诺贝尔奖得主

What could be the next Nobel Prize?  

Scientific breakthroughs often begin with bold ideas that challenge convention, open new possibilities, and reshape entire fields. CAS scientists track emerging areas of innovation that have the potential to transform medicine, materials, and molecular design.  

Here are some of our scientists’ insights into topics they believe are overdue for consideration by the Nobel committee, updated in advance of the 2026 awards.

Next-generation DNA Sequencing. Developed by Shankar Balasubramanian, David Klenerman, and collaborators, sequencing-by-synthesis technologyhas made genome sequencing faster, more affordable, and widely accessible. Thisinnovation relies on reversible terminator chemistry, where fluorescentlylabeled nucleotides are incorporated one base at a time. The result isreal-time detection of DNA synthesis with high accuracy and throughput. Theimpact spans personalized medicine, cancer treatment, pathogen identification,and global genomics research.

Solar cells.Advances in solar cell chemistry, particularly in perovskite and organicphotovoltaics, have transformed renewable energy. Building on the dye-sensitizedarchitecture that Michael Grätzel introduced in 1991, researchersincluding Grätzel, Tsutomu Miyasaka, Nam-Gyu Park, Henry Snaith, and Alex K.Y. Jen have developed hybrid materialsthat rival silicon in efficiency while offering low-cost, solution-basedmanufacturing. These technologies promise flexible, lightweight solarpanels that can be printed and deployed globally. They address urgent energyneeds through scalable chemical innovation and represent a significant stepforward in sustainable energy solutions.

Carbon–nitrogen cross-coupling. The palladium-catalyzed coupling of amines with aryl halides, developed independently in the mid-1990s by Stephen Buchwald and John Hartwig, and now universally called the Buchwald–Hartwig amination, is among the most heavily used bond-forming reactions in drug discovery. Aryl amines run throughout the pharmacopeia, and successive generations of phosphine ligand design turned a once harsh, low-yielding transformation into a reliable step that works on heteroaromatics and at manufacturing scale. The 2010 prize recognized palladium-catalyzed carbon–carbon cross-coupling; carbon–nitrogen bond formation, arguably the branch of greatest pharmaceutical impact, was not included.  

Three paths to a Nobel Prize in Chemistry

From the invention of CRISPR to the development of quantum dots, Nobel-winning research often follows one of three trajectories. Some discoveries lay the groundwork for entire fields. Many introduce transformative tools that accelerate innovation. A certain few deliver real-world applications that change lives.  

In this exclusive analysis, CAS scientists examined the publication patterns, collaboration networks, and innovation timelines behind Nobel-winning work. The result? A data-driven three-path framework that explains past awards and may help predict future ones. Examples include:

Foundational understanding

• Mechanistic studies of DNA repair. Tomas Lindahl, Paul Modrich, Aziz Sancar. 2015. ‍ ‍
• Atmospheric chemistry, particularly concerning the formation and decomposition of ozone. Paul J. Crutzen, Mario J. Molina, F. Sherwood Rowland. 1995. ‍ ‍
• Catalytic properties of RNA. Sidney Altman, Thomas R. Cech. 1989.

Tools and techniques

• The development of a method for genome editing. Emmanuelle Charpentier, Jennifer A. Doudna. 2020. ‍ ‍
• The development of super-resolved fluorescence microscopy. Eric Betzig, Stefan W. Hell, William E. Moerner.  2014. ‍
• Chirally catalysed hydrogenation reactions and chirally catalysed oxidation reactions. William S. Knowles, Ryoji Noyori, K. Barry Sharpless. 2001.  

Impactful applications

• The discovery and development of conductive polymers. Alan J. Heeger, Alan G. MacDiarmid, Hideki Shirakawa. 2000. ‍
• The development of lithium-ion batteries. John B. Goodenough, Stanley Whittingham, Akira Yoshino. 2019. ‍
• The discovery of fullerenes. Robert F. Curl Jr., Sir Harold W. Kroto, Richard E. Smalley.  1996.

One important finding of our analysis? Aspiring Nobel laureates must be patient. On average, 25 years elapse between publication of the seminal paper disclosing an initial discovery and that work being recognized with a Nobel Prize.  

‍

Image credit: © Nobel Prize Outreach. Photo: Clément Morin.